What to Do with China?
USA <<Campaign For Liberty>> click here
By Doug Bandow
Published 01/26/10
The U.S. is the world's dominant power. Nevertheless, some Americans see China as a serious security threat. They want to use Beijing as a justification for raising the military budget even further.
It's a foolish policy that could end up getting the U.S. into an unnecessary war.
Earlier this year Adm. Robert F. Willard, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, testified that China's military build-up was "aggressive" and appeared to be "designed to challenge U.S. freedom of action in the region." It was a dramatic example of chutzpah of the sort routinely engaged in by Washington officials.
Look around the world. The U.S. accounts for almost half of the world's military outlays. America spends several times as much as much as Beijing on the military. The U.S. is the only nation which has global reach. Washington has scattered hundreds of thousands of troops on hundreds of installations worldwide. Many are deployed along China's border. Washington is the most important participant in every leading military alliance from Asia to Europe. Occupation forces remain on station in Iraq. Washington is expanding the war in Afghanistan. Only American officials circle the globe telling other peoples how to run their countries.
When Adm. Willard talks about preserving America's "freedom of action in the region," he means maintaining Washington's ability to attack the People's Republic of China. Whether it is good for the U.S. government to possess such power is not clear. "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely," famously warned Lord Acton. He didn't exempt America from the operation of his aphorism. However, whether it's good or not doesn't matter. Washington's dominance is going to fade. With a $12 trillion national debt, annual deficits exceeding $1 trillion, and $107 trillion in unfunded liabilities, Washington cannot afford to forever spend as much as the rest of the world on the military. Especially when defense is so much cheaper than offense. No country has an ability to harm the U.S. other than Russia and China, which possess (smaller and much smaller, respectively) arsenals of nuclear-tipped ICBM's. Terrorists also are a threat, but aren't in the same category as nuclear war.
Washington's ability to attack other nations requires not just ICBM's, but also air wings, carrier groups, armored divisions, and more. Lots of them. Enough of them to overwhelm the defenders. The PRC isn't busy building carrier groups -- one carrier appears to be on the drawing board, but the current America-China balance is eleven-zero. Instead, Beijing is acquiring missiles and submarines which can sink American carriers. The PRC also is developing anti-satellite weapons and other asymmetric warfare capabilities. These weapons aren't cheap, but they are a lot cheaper than what the U.S. is buying and doing. Even today, war with Beijing would be a nightmare. A conflict with nuclear-armed China would be very different than America's other recent military opponents: Afghanistan, Grenada, Haiti, Iraq (twice), Panama, and Serbia. In a few years such a war would be indescribably worse.
But there's another reason to avoid conflict with China. This fantastic and fascinating nation of 1.3 billion people has the potential to become a free society. Many barriers remain to such a transformation. The government in Beijing is authoritarian, recently tightening internet censorship and imprisoning human rights activists. Social unrest, ethnic division, and financial over extension all could lead to crisis. Nationalism is a very powerful impulse, even among the modernizing young. Democracy may be very long in coming. Yet it is impossible to visit the PRC without feeling respect for the present and hope for the future. China has come far fast. Part of that obviously is economic.
The PRC remains poor -- estimates of its per capita income run between $3200 and $3300 annually, putting it around 100 out of nearly 200 nations. (Purchasing power parity yields about $6000, though China's relative ranking remains about the same.) Nevertheless, economic growth has been dramatic, and over the last three decades hundreds of millions of people have escaped immiserating poverty. That is an enormous moral good. If the PRC continues on its present course, prosperity will spread to more and more people. Throughout most of China's history, life has been, in the words of philosopher Thomas Hobbes, "poor, nasty, brutish, and short." For Chinese today that is finally changing. Moreover, the PRC has become much freer in recent decades. Not free, of course. But compare China today to Mao Zedong's China. For instance, the Cultural Revolution was a time of political madness, in which Mao triggered a xenophobic near-civil war. Tens of millions of people died during Mao's rule.
Today, the Chinese people increasingly enjoy the sort of personal autonomy that Americans have come to expect. The economy is increasingly private; the independent sector is expanding. Even religious liberty is advancing, though inconsistently and slowly. Decisions over everything from career to marriage have gone from political acts to personal choice. The dramatic changes in the PRC and the country's great potential become particularly evident to Westerners when they visit China. Go to Beijing or Shanghai, which I've visited several times, and you'd think you were in any major American or European city. It's not just the tall buildings, but the active, busy, and energetic people. I recently returned from a conference in Shenyang, a large city in Manchuria, in China's northeast. Once viewed as part of the PRC's rustbelt, Shenyang appears to be participating in China's rapid economic growth. But more impressive to me is the relatively free personal life that I observed. In traditional communist systems politics was never far behind. From public symbols to personal relations, politics is everything. That is to be expected in societies where expressing the wrong sentiment about the wrong idea or politician can result in imprisonment or death.
In China there's little public evidence of communism. There's no dictatorial personality cult. There's no sense that someone is listening in to your conversations. Business and travel are generally free. No one demands your papers or asks where you are going -- even foreigners. Computers and cell phones are widely available; car ownership is increasingly common. People engage in a cat and mouse game with the censorship authorities over internet access. Personal interaction also is relatively uninhibited. People are friendly and open. They want a better world for their families just like we do for ours.
None of these change the fact that China is not free. And as much as we can hope for a freer PRC in the future, a number of nations, such as Russia, have been moving backward in recent days. Predicting China's future is not for the faint-hearted. There's reason for the U.S. to be watchful and wary when dealing with a growing PRC. But the two nations have no reason to come into conflict. China will inevitably grow more influential, especially in East Asia; the U.S. will inevitably see its dominance fade, starting in East Asia. Such a loss of influence might be painful, but not critical. America will remain essentially secure even if Washington no longer dominates every continent in every way.
The most foolish policy would be to treat the PRC as an enemy and the Chinese as enemies. That would guarantee precisely the result which Washington wants to avoid, whether the PRC remains authoritarian or becomes democratic. It is time for the U.S. to become a normal country again. Washington's duty is to protect Americans, not order around everyone else on earth. If U.S. policymakers don't recognize reality on their own, the Chinese are the first of many other peoples likely to force Americans to learn this lesson.
Doug Bandow is the Robert A. Taft Fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance (www.acdalliance.org) and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author of Foreign Follies: America's New Global Empire
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/article.php?view=558
The China Dream
Why the Middle Kingdom isn't really taking over the world.(8)
Published by USA <<Newsweek>>
George Osodi / AP
A child plays near a Shell flow station in Nigeria, where Western oil companies are the leading partner on oil projects.
The rise of China is, as we all know by now, the definitive economic and political story of our time. Every week a new book title announces an "irresistible" tilt east, the emergence of "Chimerica" and a not-too-distant future when China "rules" the planet. The mainstream media, and especially the business press, are gripped by the narrative of China taking over the world-every other headline in the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal has a China focus.
But the coverage of China's global inroads has been profoundly short on context, particularly when it comes to how China is-and is not-surpassing the U.S. as a global power. There are plenty of stories of a Chinese-sponsored infrastructure project or a Chinese company cutting a deal to feed its "insatiable thirst" for raw materials, while Western involvement of similar or greater magnitude is lucky to make a headline at all. Meanwhile, a close look at the key economic metrics and the subtler shades of power, such as cultural influence and humanitarian aid, reveals that while China is indeed one of the great powers in the world now (late last month it officially overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economy), its influence is mixed, and often undercut by America's.
While China's trade with regions like Africa and Latin America is growing exponentially, it is still outpaced by America's, which tends to be more diverse. In Asia, China is now the dominant trading partner, yet the flows are mainly in low-end goods, while America dominates higher up the food chain. U.S. aid and foreign direct investment in these regions still eclipses that of the Chinese, and its soft power still reigns, as does its military might, despite recent Chinese buildups in this area. "Economic heft alone has never been enough for a country to be dominant outside its borders," says Charles Onyango-Obbo, a journalist who writes for the weekly newspaper The East African. He recently penned a column titled "Chinese Takeover? I'm Not Losing Any Sleep." "It's really been American education, technology, culture [Hollywood and music], business, and sport that has enabled it to be so overarching," says Onyango-Obbo. "China is going to be a very important power in the world, but it will not be dominant."
Perhaps nowhere is this more apparent than in Africa, where China has been depicted as the shrewd winner of a neocolonial scramble for resources, offering developmental assistance-mainly in the form of low-priced manufactured goods, infrastructure investment, and soft loans-all proffered with no pesky Western-style demands to respect human rights. In exchange, China gets access to raw materials to fuel its economic boom. No doubt China's presence on the continent has expanded considerably in recent years. But the U.S. remains sub-Saharan Africa's largest trading partner, accounting for 15 percent of Africa's total trade versus 10 percent for the Chinese (it's also worth noting that Africa has been a low trading priority for the U.S., accounting for a mere 2 percent of its global trade).
Indeed, the bulk of China-Africa trade is made up of Chinese oil imports from five countries, and even with respect to oil-said to be at the heart of China's drive on the continent-America holds a sizable lead. China imports 17 percent of all African oil compared with 29 percent for the U.S. (and 35 percent for Europe). Western companies are the leading foreign partners in oil projects in Nigeria, which is sub-Saharan Africa's largest oil producer, and in the continent's largest emerging oil producers such as Ghana and Uganda.
This trend may well continue, in part because of allegations of corruption and shoddy execution in a number of Chinese energy and infrastructure projects throughout Africa. An $8 billion Chinese-sponsored road and mine project in Congo, deemed the "Marshall Plan of Africa" when it was unveiled a couple of years ago, has been tainted by allegations of corruption and poor implementation, as has a massive Chinese-funded fiber-optic project in Uganda. A recent study from the African Labor Research Network, called "Chinese Investments in Africa: A Labour Perspective," looked at labor conditions at Chinese companies in 10 African countries and found them "among the worst employers everywhere," according to the report's author, Herbert Jauch.
Disenchantment with the Middle Kingdom is particularly strong in Angola and Nigeria, which a few years ago were both tilting China's way, lured by the promise of soft, unconditional development loans and noninterference in domestic politics. Two-way trade between China and Nigeria doubled to $7 billion between 2006 and 2008 (though still dwarfed by $42 billion with the U.S. in 2008). Yet Nigeria's late president Umaru Yar'Adua ended up canceling a number of the projects due to scandals and delays. Washington has been quietly capitalizing; according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, exports to Nigeria have risen 48 percent and imports (consisting predominantly of oil) by 16 percent this year alone.
The situation is the same in Angola, where Angolan Rafael Marques de Morais, founder of Maka, which monitors corruption in the country, says, "Corruption and a lack of accountability on China-Angola deals have undermined a more sustainable and long-term relationship between the two countries." He points to the General Hospital built by Chinese contractors in Luanda, the capital's first new hospital since independence, which "four years after its inauguration is basically collapsing." In July patients and staff were evacuated due to safety concerns. Once again, Washington moved to exploit disenchantment with Beijing, meeting with Angolan officials in June to discuss ways to deepen and diversify trade, and pushing a newly signed IMF agreement of understanding that may lead to fresh loans from Western banks.
This underscores America's deeper and more diversified engagement not only with Africa, but many other parts of the world, via international institutions as well as humanitarian aid and military assistance. Despite high-profile ties with Zimbabwe and Sudan, China has little military presence in Africa and almost none in Latin America, and is still overshadowed by the U.S. even within its own backyard. Last month in Hanoi, for instance, the U.S. was a welcome presence at the ASEAN Regional Forum, Asia's largest security meeting, amid growing concerns about China's military buildup and its claims to the disputed Paracel and Spratly islands, which are also claimed in part by Taiwan, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Obama plans to invite ASEAN leaders to a second U.S. ASEAN meeting in the fall, and ASEAN foreign ministers have invited the U.S. to a regional dialogue, known as the East Asia Summit, which diplomats reportedly said would help counter Chinese influence in the region. Washington recently boosted humanitarian and military aid to Laos and Cambodia and removed them from a trade blacklist, which should attract more U.S. investment. And in July Vietnam's Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Khiem said America and Vietnam are "leaving the past behind" as they strengthen commercial and military ties. Their two-way trade leapt from $2.91 billion in 2002 to $15.4 billion last year. The U.S. has made similar progress with Indonesia, signing an agreement in April that will allow greater American capital flows into Southeast Asia's largest economy.
Of course, Asia is still the one region in the world where China now dominates regional trade-overall trade between China and the rest of the continent hit $231 billion versus the U.S.'s $178 billion in 2008. But most of the flows are in intermediary goods of low value (China buys cheap components and raw materials from poorer nations and uses them to make products for export, just as it supplies the same to richer nations like South Korea). This trade does not foster the skills transfer that Southeast Asian countries so desperately need in their bid to move up the technology ladder. Countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia still rely on entrepreneurial, technological, and educational engagement with the U.S. for that. And America still accounts for a far greater chunk of regional foreign direct investment-8.5 percent versus China's 3.8 percent, or $3.4 billion to $1.5 billion, in 2009. Experts such as Elizabeth Economy, director of Asia studies for the Council on Foreign Relations, believe that the moves toward closer U.S. political, economic, and security cooperation in Southeast Asia will continue. "There's no intention of wasting the opportunity," she says.
In other places where China is increasingly prominent economically, such as Latin America, the U.S. still has important cards to play as well. Last year China replaced the U.S. as Brazil's leading trading partner, and it's now the second-largest trading partner in Venezuela, Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, and Argentina. But while Asia's overall trade with the region (driven largely by China) rose 96 percent over the past decade, the U.S. saw an even greater rise-118 percent-in total trade. And according to Shanghai's SinoLatin Capital, China's accumulated investment in Latin America by the close of 2008 was a mere $12 billion-or less than the state of Michigan invests in the region, according to China Economic Review.
As in many regions, there are cultural and geographical barriers to closer China-Latin America relations. "The U.S. and Latin America are doomed to live closely together, and China can never compete with that," says Kevin Casas-Zamora, a Latin America expert with the Brookings Institution. America's soft-power appeal in the region dwarfs China's, resonating through popular culture, language, and ideals. Most Latin American countries are functioning or aspiring democracies, and despite China's attempts to attract interest in Chinese language and culture via Confucius Institutes (300 are being rolled out around the world, including 21 in Latin America), there remain few Chinese speakers in Latin America and Spanish speakers in China. Soft power is also very much at play in Africa, particularly given President Obama's connection to the region (everything from restaurants to car washes are named after him). Signs of American culture, from film to music to fashion, permeate the region. African students still dream of going to the U.S. to study, and English is very much the language to learn.
What's more, the U.S. still tends to be the country to call when there is trouble. Consider the terrorist bombings in Kampala, Uganda, that left more than 85 people dead this summer. President Yoweri Museveni had been trading barbs with Washington prior to the incident about the pace of democratic reforms in his country. Museveni had also been tightening relations with China. But after the bombings, he swiftly turned not to Beijing but to Washington for assistance, and received $24 million in manpower and technical resources.
This sort of effort, particularly when contrasted with China's recent political bumbles in Africa and elsewhere (for example, its growing reputation for shoddy construction work in Africa; its South China Sea squabbles with its Asian neighbors), makes America look good and underscores the opportunity for it to better play the myriad cards it has at its disposal-cultural, military, scientific, and economic. Many of these were underutilized or misused during its two decades as the world's lone superpower. To the extent that China's rise forces America's nimble reengagement with the world, the effect may be win-win.
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/09/the-china-dream.html
China promises: "PEACE, I'm lovin' it!"
Provoked China will NOT afraid of War.
Well Proven by Korean War 1950-1953.
Can this Unnecessary War be avoided?
Why Antagonize China?(9)
The revitalization of Asian capitalism is the most important positive event
in the world in the last 30 years...
USA: <<The Wall Street Journal>>
By GEORGE GILDER
FEBRUARY 4, 2010, 11:50 P.M. ET
While attempting to appease a long list of utterly unappeasable foes?Iran, North Korea, Hamas, Hezbollah, and even Hugo Ch¨¢vez?today the U.S. treats China, perhaps our most crucial economic partner, as an adversary because it defies us on global warming, dollar devaluation, and Internet policy.
It started last June in Beijing when U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner lectured Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who recoiled like a man cornered by a crank at a cocktail party. Mr. Geithner was haranguing the Chinese on two highly questionable themes, neither arguably in the interests of either country: the need to suppress energy output in the name of global warming?a subject on which Mr. Geithner has no expertise?and the need for a Chinese dollar devaluation, on which one can scarcely imagine that he can persuade Chinese holders of a trillion dollars of reserves. This week in a meeting with Senate Democrats, President Obama continued to fret about the dollar being too strong against the yuan at a time when most of the world's investors fear that the Chinese will act on his words and crash the dollar.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the president's friends at Google are hectoring China on Internet policy. Although commanding twice as many Internet users as we do, China originates fewer viruses and scams than does the U.S. and with Taiwan produces comparable amounts of Internet gear. As an authoritarian regime, it obviously will not be amenable to an open and anonymous net regime. Protecting information on the Internet is a responsibility of U.S. corporations and their security tools, not the State Department.
Yes, the Chinese are needlessly aggressive in missile deployments against Taiwan, but there is absolutely no prospect of a successful U.S. defense of that country. Sending them $6 billion of new weapons is a needless provocation against China that does nothing valuable for the defense of the U.S. or Taiwan. Yes, the Chinese have also spurned America's quixotic effort to herd the gangs of anti-Semitic, anti-American oil-dependent felines at the United Nations to undertake an effective program of economic sanctions against Iran.
A foreign policy of serious people at a time of crisis will recognize that the current Chinese regime is the best we can expect from that country. The Chinese revitalization of Asian capitalism remains the most important positive event in the world in the last 30 years. Not only did it release a billion people from penury and oppression but it transformed China from a communist enemy of the U.S. into a now indispensable capitalist partner. It is ironic that liberals who once welcomed appeasement of the monstrous regime of Mao Zedong now become openly bellicose at various murky incidents of Internet hacking.
Nonetheless, with millions of Islamists on its borders and within them, China is nearly as threatened by radical Islam as we are. China has a huge stake in the global capitalist economy that Islamic terrorists aim to overthrow. And China, like the U.S., is so heavily dependent on Taiwanese manufacturing skills and so intertwined with Taiwan's industry that China's military threat to the island is mostly theater.
Although some Taiwanese politicians still dream of permanent independence, Taiwan's world-beating entrepreneurs have long since laid their bets on links to the mainland. Two thirds of Taiwanese companies, some 10,000, have made significant investments in China over the last five years, totaling some $200 billion. Three quarters of a million Taiwanese reside in China for more than 180 days a year.
With Taiwan, greater China is the world's leading actual manufacturer and assembler of microchips, computers and network equipment on which the Internet subsists. Virtually all U.S. advanced electronics, as eminent chemist Arthur Robinson reported last month in his newsletter Access to Energy, are dependent on rare earth elements used to enhance the performance of microchips and held in a near global monopoly by the Chinese firm Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech Company in Mongolia.
The U.S. is as dependent on China for its economic and military health and economic growth as China is dependent on the U.S. for its key markets, reserve finance, and global capitalist trading regime.
It is self-destructive folly to sacrifice this core synergy at the heart of global capitalism in order to gain concessions on global warming, dollar weakening, or Internet politics.
How many enemies do we need?
Mr. Gilder is a founder of the Discovery Institute and author of "The Israel Test"
(Richard Vigilante Books, 2009).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704041504575045573110641044.html?
The China International Search and Rescue Team (consisted of 50-member team, including 25 rescuers and 15 medical workers) arrived in Port-au-Prince two days after the 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck on Jan. 12. The Team had retrieved more than 20 bodies and helped treat about 2,500 injured people, 500 of whom were seriously hurt. On January 26, 2010 the rescue team was replaced by a new 40-member medical team (included internists, surgeons and anti-epidemic experts) from China. Chinese medical team worked at a makeshift hospital that the team had set up in Port-au-Prince Jan. 27, 2010. The team stayed in Haiti for weeks to provide basic medical care and anti-epidemic work for survivors of the Jan. 12 earthquake.
Chinese police, U.S. soldiers conduct first joint patrol in Port-au-Prince
on January 29, 2010 under the command of
United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH).
The Chinese UN Peacekeeping Police has served in Hiati for years.
The Chinese Police has built a very good relationship with Haitians.
The Chinese is highly respected and well received among Hiati general public.
US military used UN Chinese Police image to better their appearance in Haiti
China International Search and Rescue team
the team started work immediately on arrival
Chinese medical team performed diagnosis for a pregnant woman
Team returned to Beijing following almost two weeks of search and rescue operations
Team member enjoyed a family re-union after arrival at Beijing.
The Medical Team Anti-Epidemic experts at work:
Epidemic Prevention were dirty but essential tasks.
Chinese medical team provided medical services at a makeshift hospital
During Jan. 12 earthquake eight UN Peacekeeping Chinese Police died.
They were in a meeting at UN Headquarter Building which collapsed.
Honourable eight UN Peacekeepers left Port-au-Prince by air to China.
The Honourable 8 UN Peacekeeping Police gave their ultimate sacrifice.
The honourable eight UN Peacekeepers arrived Beijing on Jan 27, 2010.
Starting in February several makeshift hospitals were set up in Haiti.
Haitians lined up to receive the most needed medical care.
Haitians lined up at a drug tent to receive free medicine according to the prescriptions.
Anti-Epidemic experts busy testing the quality of water supply in Haiti.
Bellerive, wife of Haiti President, came to show appreciation to the
China International Search and Rescue team before their departure.
In her mind she could count on China for help during the earthquake.
For sure, China will NOT send an army to invade and occupy
another country in the name of providing Natural Disaster Relief.
On 6 February 2010 BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8501660.stm
"Mr Clinton apologised for the delay in delivering and co-ordinating relief efforts."
With over 15,000 military personnel in a tiny area of Port-au-Prince
Holding on all Earthquake Relief materials from all over the world and for
4 weeks (since Jan/12) USA could NOT speed up sluggish aid deliveries, WHY?
USA had no heart for the dying and starving Haitian at Port-au-Prince.
They are saying "A friend like this you do NOT need any enemy."
Relationship between China and Haiti can be summarized in following photo:
China is one of the Developing Nations on Earth. Every Developing
Nation knows that in case of Natural Disaster events, China will
Provide unselfish and generous help( i.e. Africa Algeria, Asia Tsunami,
USA Hurricane Katrina, Iran,Pakistan and Haiti Earthquake.....)
May the Friendship of all Developing Nations on Earth last forever...
PEACE BE ON EARTH FOREVER...
China wishes to avoid this unnecessary war.
Hoping that her so called "Smart Power"
Not turns into "Stupid or Suicidal Power"
America's looming China challenge
USA <<NEW YORK POST>>
By ARTHUR HERMAN
Last Updated: 7:47 PM, January 26, 2010
A dangerous storm is brewing over the Pacific, as America and the People's Republic of China enter what may be their tensest decade since President Richard Nixon's visit to Beijing in 1972.
The latest flash is the running fight over Internet freedom, with Google this month withdrawing from China in protest against government censorship. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is hitting Beijing over the issue, but it may be the least of our worries.
On Jan. 11 China tested a new high-boost ballistic missile, the HQ-19, which some experts fear is part of China's ongoing program to find ways to disable US military satellites. Another pending issue will fan the flames: arms sales to Taiwan.
Taiwan wants to upgrade its aging military air fleet with Blackhawk helicopters and F-16 fighters. It also holds a contract with the Raytheon Corp. for an anti-missile Patriot Missile System -- with a separate contract for delivery of the missiles. And the Chinese are furious about it.
Yet who can blame the Taiwanese? Over the last decade, Communist China has aimed a vast, interlocking system of hundreds of ballistic missiles at its tiny but longstanding capitalist rival across the Taiwan Straits.
And the implications of this missile buildup go far beyond Taiwan. A Pentagon report last year concluded that Beijing now has the world's biggest land-based ballistic-missile program.
What worries our military is that these missiles threaten not only Taiwan but also our ships at sea -- and the most sophisticated are aimed at our military communication and control satellites. The HQ-19 test is a major leap in that capability.
Throw in the nearly 6,000 computer hackers the Chinese People's Liberation Army employs daily to devise ways to crash FORCEnet and other US military-communications software: In a real crisis, our Army, Navy and Air Force could find themselves fighting blind.
Warning bells have been going off in the Pentagon for several years, but policymakers prefer to ignore them.
The governing assumption has been that Chinese-US relations would only get better as our economies became more interdependent. China experts told us how China and America were becoming more alike, even steadfast partners in globalization. They dismissed China's steady military buildup as a vestige of China's Cold War vulnerability.
Besides, in terms of dollars, China's military budget is barely a seventh of ours. Yes, it has doubled in the last decade, and China two years ago became the world's No. 2 military spender -- but it would still take them decades to catch up to No. 1.
Now, it turns out that while we were playing checkers, the Chinese were playing chess. The largest land army in the world, the largest submarine fleet and the third-largest air force, plus an increasingly sophisticated multiple-warhead ballistic-missile arsenal: Having all that may not give Beijing the power to take what it wants (yet). But it's developing the power to deny:deny us the ability to assist Taiwan and Japan militarily; deny us access to the East Asian land mass and the region's major strategic choke points; possibly even deny us routes to and from Asia across the Indian Ocean as well as access to our own satellite and communications networks.
That positions them perfectly as a rival we dare not ignore -- or displease.
Our Asian partners get it. India and Japan last month signed a strategic-cooperation pact, doubtless in order to plan how to deal with a potential Chinese foe.
And Japan has reversed course on its longstanding demand that we close our military base in Okinawa. Japan's new prime minister now thinks our plans to shift forces to Guam might be a mistake. Guam is a long way from Tokyo -- but also from China.
Unfortunately, we're headed in the opposite direction. While China builds, we're shedding ships, planes, nukes and strategic-weapons programs. As our Navy cuts its aircraft carriers from 11 to 10, it's also committed to sinking its money into 50-plus new hi-tech Littoral Combat Ships -- which are handy for fighting pirates and terrorists but useless against Chinese subs and missiles.
Meanwhile, President Obama's domestic policies give China the whip hand over our economy and a mountain of US Treasury debt. The growing US reliance on China as its economic and fiscal savior is set to breed a lasting resentment and mistrust.
At best, China may become what Japan was in the '80s: the economic challenger Americans love to hate. At worst, an even more drastic revision of US-China relations may be in the offing.
Either way, as the fight over Google and the looming one over Taiwan show, the trend line is far from encouraging.
Arthur Herman's most recent book, "Gandhi and Churchill," was a Pulitzer Prize finalist last year.
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